Aaon

AAON · NASDAQ

$73.92−$1.42 (−1.88%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $75.34

AAON analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 80% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $134.26 (+81.6% upside)

Low: $111.10
Now: $73.92
High: $161.70

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AAON analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Oppenheimer	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$125.00 → $115.00	59%
DA Davidson	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$110.00	49%
Oppenheimer	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$145.00 → $125.00	59%
Baird	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$150.00 → $135.00	50%
Keybanc	Jul 23, 2026	Initiates	Sector Weight	—	80%
Oppenheimer	Mar 3, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$115.00 → $118.00	59%
DA Davidson	Feb 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$120.00	72%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

AAON is viewed favorably because its premium, semi-custom HVAC platform commands about a 5%-10% price premium through differentiated engineering, in-house testing, and a rep-driven channel that supports durable share gains in non-residential rooftop units and national accounts. Its BASX business is a major growth engine, with revenue rising from about $70M in 2021 to nearly $550M in 2025 and an estimated $1.2B+ in 2026, backed by a $1.43B backlog at 2Q26 and expanding capacity that should support a more than $2B/year production footprint. Although 2025 working capital reached 28% of sales and Memphis ramp costs pressured margins, improving throughput, pricing actions, and better finance discipline are expected to restore free cash flow and margin expansion into 2027.

Bear case

AAON is exposed to several fundamental headwinds that justify a negative outlook, led by a slowdown in data center capital expenditures across North America that could reduce demand for BASX thermal management solutions. Ongoing ERP implementation at the Tulsa and Redmond facilities also creates execution risk, as rollout disruptions could impair production schedules, revenue, and earnings, while sustained inflation in steel, copper, and aluminum may squeeze margins if pricing cannot fully offset higher costs. Customer concentration adds another layer of vulnerability, since at the end of 2025 three customers each represented 10% or more of revenue and accounts receivable, meaning the loss of one or more could significantly damage results.

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