Aardvark Therapeutics

AARD · NASDAQ

$3.90+$0.16 (+4.28%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:45 PM ET

Prev close $3.74

AARD analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 38% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold4
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $14.28 (+266.2% upside)

Low: $3.03
Now: $3.90
High: $47.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AARD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
HC Wainwright & Co.	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.00 → $4.00	43%
RBC Capital	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$6.00	44%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.00	43%
B. Riley Securities	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$8.00 → $7.00	23%
BTIG	May 15, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	—	54%
Morgan Stanley	May 15, 2026	Downgrade	Equal-Weight → Underweight	$7.00 → $3.00	43%
BTIG	Mar 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$9.00	54%
Oppenheimer	Mar 2, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$35.00 → $21.00	45%
BTIG	Mar 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$26.00 → $9.00	54%
Morgan Stanley	Mar 2, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$29.00 → $7.00	43%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Aardvark Therapeutics is viewed favorably because ARD-101’s gut-restricted TAS2R mechanism has solid mechanistic support, with prior preclinical and clinical findings on CCK signaling and hypothalamic appetite regulation reinforcing the case for hyperphagia in PWS. The company’s clinical data so far suggest a potentially improved safety profile versus systemic approaches, while earlier phase IIa results in general obesity and post-bariatric weight gain showed reductions in hunger ratings and ghrelin levels, supporting translatability. Despite small studies and some variability, the high unmet need in PWS and favorable pricing power in rare pediatric disease underpin an estimated $800M revenue opportunity for ARD-101.

Bear case

Aardvark Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with no revenue, leaving valuation dependent on unproven assets and financing capacity rather than commercial cash flow. Its lead program, ARD-101, is hampered by a full FDA clinical hold that applies to the Phase 3 HERO and open-label extension trials, and the company terminated both in June 2026, underscoring a materially uncertain regulatory path and delayed market entry. Even with a DCF using a 12% discount rate and 1% terminal growth rate, the risk profile remains elevated because negative efficacy or safety results, partnership setbacks, and medium-term equity dilution could further pressure enterprise value and investor confidence.

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