Aflac

AFL · NYSE

$120.27+$1.60 (+1.35%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $118.67

AFL analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 12% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold11
Underperform4
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $118.29 (−1.6% downside)

Low: $78.36
Now: $120.27
High: $144.90

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AFL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$116.00 → $119.00	81%
Wells Fargo	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$122.00 → $116.00	75%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$125.00 → $120.00	71%
Mizuho	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$116.00 → $107.00	58%
Barclays	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$99.00 → $101.00	61%
UBS	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$124.00 → $125.00	57%
Wolfe Research	Aug 19, 2026	Initiates	Underperform	$103.00	58%
Wells Fargo	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$120.00 → $122.00	75%
JP Morgan	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$117.00 → $116.00	81%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$120.00 → $125.00	71%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Aflac is supported by resilient earnings power that appears underappreciated, with adjusted run-rate EPS around $1.84 even after one-time items and a quarter that was only modestly weaker than expected. Strategic actions are improving the growth and capital profile: a roughly $4.8 billion investment portfolio restructuring should add about $50 million of annual pre-tax net investment income, while raising Japanese liability cessions from 10% toward about 30% could free approximately $2.5 billion of capital over time. Despite a higher-than-expected Japanese benefit ratio and slower U.S. premium growth, management expects 2026 Japan sales to exceed 2025, and stronger cross-sell of cancer, medical, and Tsumitasu products supports a constructive outlook.

Bear case

Aflac is facing a softening fundamental backdrop as reported EPS of $1.75 missed both consensus at $1.77 and PSC at $1.76, with the shortfall driven mainly by weaker Japan results. Japan’s benefit ratio reached 63.4% year to date, above the high end of its 60-63% guide, while weaker currency movements, lower sales, and delayed campaigns put the 2026 JPY 80 billion sales goal at risk. In the U.S., net earned premiums were challenged and are now expected to come in below the 3-6% guidance range, reinforcing a negative outlook despite management’s hopes for stronger second-half sales in group voluntary, dental, and vision products.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.