Assured Guaranty

AGO · NYSE

$70.01+$0.25 (+0.36%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Prev close $69.76

AGO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 80% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $92.82 (+32.6% upside)

Low: $85.85
Now: $70.01
High: $101.85

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AGO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Roth Capital	Sep 25, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$80.00 → $85.00	70%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$101.00 → $97.00	61%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$103.00 → $101.00	61%
UBS	May 19, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$94.00	61%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Mar 19, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$108.00 → $103.00	61%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Nov 19, 2025	Maintains	Outperform	$105.00 → $108.00	65%
UBS	Nov 17, 2025	Maintains	Neutral	$92.00 → $94.00	68%

The case for and against

Updated Nov 28, 2024

Bull case

Assured Guaranty Ltd. has demonstrated a strong financial performance in recent quarters, with a 12% growth in book value per share (BVPS) in the fourth quarter of 2023, and an expected normalization of annual BVPS growth to around 10%. The company is poised to benefit from increasing investment income due to rising interest rates, which will enhance its capacity to sustain normal dividends. Additionally, the growth potential in structured finance, supported by global infrastructure investments and rising public finance issuance, positions Assured Guaranty favorably for continued expansion in its market segments.

Bear case

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is facing a decline in earnings per share forecasted for 2024 and 2025, with estimates ranging from $6 to $7, significantly lower than the 2023 GAAP EPS of $12.40. The company's high exposure to credit risks related to insured municipal bonds, alongside potential downgrades from rating agencies and macroeconomic uncertainties, poses significant challenges to its financial stability. Additionally, the company's inability to generate sufficient new municipal bond insurance business, coupled with the disappointing asset management growth and constraints in deploying excess capital effectively, further exacerbates the negative outlook on its stock performance.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.