AIRO Group Holdings

AIRO · NASDAQ

$4.97−$0.32 (−6.05%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:58 PM ET

Prev close $5.29

AIRO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 67% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $16.83 (+238.6% upside)

Low: $13.13
Now: $4.97
High: $21.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AIRO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Mizuho	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$13.00 → $11.00	66%
Mizuho	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$16.00 → $13.00	66%
BTIG	Apr 8, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	—	32%
Mizuho	Jan 5, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$25.00 → $20.00	66%
BTIG	Nov 24, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$26.00 → $19.00	32%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Nov 21, 2025	Maintains	Overweight	$35.00 → $20.00	45%
Mizuho	Nov 17, 2025	Maintains	Outperform	$31.00 → $25.00	66%

The case for and against

Updated May 12, 2026

Bull case

AIRO Group Holdings is facing several challenges that have led to a decline in backlog every quarter since its IPO, competition in the drone market has intensified with faster iteration cycles and a growing list of cleared platforms, and the company is heavily reliant on a single platform, the RQ-35 Heidrun, for a majority of its revenue. These developments have eroded confidence in AIRO's near-term prospects and raised concerns about its ability to differentiate itself in the increasingly crowded market. While the company's Training and Avionics segments show potential, they are not likely to offset any weakness in the Drones segment. These challenges have prompted a reassessment of the stock's rating and a downgrade to Neutral.

Bear case

AIRO Group Holdings is facing headwinds as their backlog and US growth opportunities are not enough to offset the slow progress in their JVs and the lack of diversification within their UAS portfolio. The company's push-out in RQ-35 sales reflects the lumpiness of their business and their over-exposure to the Drones segment. While the drone market is estimated to be worth $315bn by 2030, AIRO's current valuation of 1.7x EV/sales is above the SMID cap defense market-cap weighted average of 6.5x, indicating a relative discount that may reflect the lack of visibility into future orders and the slow progress of their JVs.

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