Alumis

ALMS · NASDAQ

$6.70+$0.36 (+5.68%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:42 PM ET

Prev close $6.34

ALMS analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 89% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy7
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 10 analysts

Average $31.75 (+373.8% upside)

Low: $15.15
Now: $6.70
High: $48.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ALMS analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Guggenheim	Sep 3, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	—	49%
Oppenheimer	Sep 2, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$55.00 → $37.00	33%
Wells Fargo	Sep 2, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$51.00 → $25.00	54%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 2, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$39.00 → $29.00	63%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Sep 2, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$25.00 → $15.00	32%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$25.00	32%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$25.00	32%
Chardan Capital	May 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$38.00 → $40.00	0%
Wells Fargo	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$49.00 → $51.00	54%
Guggenheim	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$32.00 → $34.00	49%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Alumis is supported by a TYK2 platform with multiple shots on goal, where envudeucitinib has shown a generally well-tolerated safety profile with no MACE or malignancies and lower SAE, TEAE, and discontinuation rates than placebo, even though it missed several overall-population efficacy endpoints. The investment case is strengthened by the company’s belief that envu can still be differentiated in moderate-to-severe psoriasis, a 4Q26 NDA filing plan, and the 3Q26 SLE readout as a major catalyst that could validate the “pipeline-in-a-pill” strategy and support partnering. Longer-term upside is further underpinned by A-005, which is modeled for a 2029E launch, $100k initial pricing, 0.85% U.S. MS market share, and $139.4 million peak 2035E sales after a 15% launch probability.

Bear case

Alumis is viewed negatively because envudeucitinib’s Phase IIb SLE study in 408 patients missed both primary and secondary endpoints in the overall population, undermining confidence in the program’s broader clinical utility. Although IFNG-high subgroup data were encouraging, they are post-hoc and do not resolve the apparent inverse dose-response or the highly elevated placebo outcome in IFNG-low patients, leaving material uncertainty around the next Phase III design, sizing, dosing, and enrollment criteria. The investment case is further constrained by regulatory risk, competition from established oral and biologic therapies, and financing/dilution risk as the company remains pre-profitability and may need additional capital.

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