Open an account

Alto Ingredients

ALTO · NASDAQ

$3.56+$0.07 (+2.01%)TodayMarket closed ·
Prev close $3.49

ALTO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 2 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.
  • Strong buy0
  • Buy2
  • Hold0
  • Underperform0
  • Sell0

12-month price target · 5 analysts

Average $8.50 (+138.8% upside)

Low
$7.07
Now
$3.56
High
$10.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ALTO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
FirmDateActionRating
StoneXSep 30, 2026InitiatesBuy
HC Wainwright & Co.May 7, 2026MaintainsBuy

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Alto Ingredients is supported by a meaningful operational turnaround that has raised its earnings floor, with a smarter footprint, better utilization, and higher-value co-products turning a once-choppy business into one that produced $60M+ of gross profit and $70M+ of EBITDA on a TTM basis through Q2’26. Its outlook is further strengthened by favorable ethanol industry fundamentals—domestic blend rates above 11% on a TTM basis, robust exports, and regulatory support such as 45Z tax credits that add about $15M+ annually—while 1H’26 EBITDA of $28M versus a ($5M) loss in 1H’25 highlights the operating leverage. Financial flexibility has also improved, with net debt cut to $37M from an $88M peak, enabling reinvestment in growth and efficiency projects that could compound earnings power over time.

Bear case

Alto Ingredients is challenged by heavy exposure to corn and natural gas, with corn recently moving above the $4/bu-$5/bu range and a mid-$5/bu level that could keep input costs elevated while co-product margins compress. The business is also highly cyclical and price-taker exposed, as ethanol economics swing with gasoline spreads that were exceptionally strong in Q2’26 and may normalize, while a failed acquisition at a $14M cash payment plus $14M contingent consideration was fully written down in Q4’23. Although customer concentration risk is limited, Alto still faces meaningful supplier, weather, regulatory, maintenance CapEx, and execution risks, and selective volume reductions in Marketing & Distribution underscore pressure on lower-margin activity.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.