Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

ARI · NYSE

$6.37+$0.05 (+0.79%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $6.32

ARI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 67% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $9.35 (+46.8% upside)

Low: $7.83
Now: $6.37
High: $12.07

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ARI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
BTIG	Jun 25, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	—	28%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Feb 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$10.75 → $11.50	51%
JP Morgan	Nov 3, 2025	Maintains	Overweight	$10.50 → $11.00	56%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 19, 2025

Bull case

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. reported a total committed loan portfolio of $7.7 billion as of March 31, marking an 8.2% increase from the end of December, indicating robust growth in its financing activities. The company anticipates improved borrower demand for transitional capital in the commercial real estate sector, coupled with a favorable regulatory environment for specialty finance lenders, which supports the potential for increased originations. Looking ahead, expectations for earnings per share to surpass dividend levels by the end of 2025 suggest a possible dividend increase in 2026, contributing to a positive long-term financial outlook for the firm.

Bear case

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc faces a challenging outlook primarily due to significant credit risks associated with its portfolio of loans, which may result in material losses and diminished earnings during economic downturns. The company's reliance on external management raises concerns about operational effectiveness, especially given that any principal loss could negatively impact shareholder value and investor confidence in loan underwriting practices. Additionally, the rising interest rates present a dual threat by potentially hindering borrowers’ ability to meet interest payments while also affecting the value of the underlying commercial real estate assets.

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