American Express

AXP · NYSE

$318.34+$1.93 (+0.61%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $316.41

AXP analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 19 analysts over the last 12 months. 47% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold9
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 28 analysts

Average $385.12 (+21.0% upside)

Low: $332.29
Now: $318.34
High: $472.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

AXP analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$382.00 → $380.00	52%
JP Morgan	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$400.00 → $360.00	56%
RBC Capital	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$415.00 → $400.00	30%
BMO Capital	Oct 9, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$380.00	51%
TD Cowen	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$338.00 → $335.00	51%
UBS	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$384.00 → $345.00	50%
Barclays	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$364.00 → $342.00	30%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$370.00 → $320.00	49%
Citigroup	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$355.00 → $340.00	40%
Truist Securities	Sep 23, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$375.00 → $370.00	59%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

American Express is supported by a stronger product flywheel that is turning higher investment into more durable revenue conversion, with revenue per dollar of investment spending and OpEx holding at $1.63 in LTM2Q26, broadly unchanged from LTM2Q25 and LTM1Q26. Its fee economics are improving as proprietary cards-in-force rose at a ~3% CAGR from 2Q18 to 2Q26, average fee per proprietary card increased ~12%, and net card fees compounded ~16%, showing deeper monetization rather than simple account growth. The company also appears to be broadening and aging up its customer base, with Millennials and Gen Z raising their share of U.S. Consumer Services billed business from the high-20% range in 2022 to ~38% in 2Q26, supporting low-double-digit to mid-teens EPS growth potential.

Bear case

American Express is facing a more cautious fundamental outlook because the premium-card flywheel still depends on sustained new-account momentum and continued willingness of affluent customers to pay higher fees, yet new accounts are only running at 3m/quarter and card-fee growth is decelerating. Management’s 2026 revenue guidance being unchanged from 2025 performance after the Platinum refresh, alongside heightened competition in both Consumer and Commercial and the absence of clearly differentiated products, suggests limited near-term revenue acceleration. Although its reserve rate remains materially below peers and reflects lower loss content across a premium base, the company still faces risks from slower spending, weaker investment returns, higher rewards costs, and any deterioration in labor markets or credit quality.

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