Bicara Therapeutics

BCAX · NASDAQ

$18.35+$0.88 (+5.04%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 5:00 PM ET

Prev close $17.47

BCAX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 11 analysts over the last 12 months. 73% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $36.21 (+97.3% upside)

Low: $20.20
Now: $18.35
High: $47.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

BCAX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
BTIG	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$39.00	54%
BMO Capital	Aug 19, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$35.00	55%
Goldman Sachs	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$18.00 → $20.00	50%
Wedbush	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$30.00 → $33.00	46%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$37.00 → $39.00	57%
Mizuho	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$18.00 → $20.00	54%
Wells Fargo	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$16.00 → $23.00	71%
BTIG	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$28.00 → $39.00	54%
Goldman Sachs	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$16.00 → $18.00	50%
Morgan Stanley	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$36.00 → $37.00	57%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Bicara Therapeutics is attractive because ficerafusp alfa is showing clinically differentiated depth of response in HPV-negative R/M HNSCC, including a 25% complete response rate and an estimated 3-year OS rate of 31%, supporting the case for durable benefit versus the current standard of care. Its clean safety profile without unexpected TGF-β toxicity, plus Q2W and Q3W dosing strategies that narrow competitive disadvantages, strengthens the commercial and regulatory path as FORTIFI-HN01 stays on track for substantial enrollment by YE26 and a mid-2027 interim analysis. The company also has $497 million in cash, funding operations into 1H29, while 2H26 MSS CRC data and broader expansion programs offer additional upside beyond the core HNSCC opportunity.

Bear case

Bicara Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a highly concentrated risk profile, since its valuation depends heavily on ficerafusp alfa and a DCF framework using a 12% discount rate and 1% terminal growth rate. The fundamental downside stems from the possibility that clinical readouts disappoint, safety signals emerge, or regulatory review fails, any of which could halt development and leave little diversification to absorb the hit. Even if development continues, the company still faces commercial, manufacturing, and competitive risks, along with the possibility that sales estimates are never achieved because current or future therapies outcompete its lead asset.

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