Black Rock Coffee Bar

BRCB · NASDAQ

$8.62+$0.15 (+1.77%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:37 PM ET

Prev close $8.47

BRCB analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 40% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $12.65 (+46.7% upside)

Low: $9.09
Now: $8.62
High: $21.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

BRCB analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Baird	Aug 24, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Neutral	$12.00 → $10.00	51%
DA Davidson	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00 → $10.00	18%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 16, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$22.00 → $9.00	48%
Piper Sandler	Jun 8, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$9.00	64%
DA Davidson	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$16.00 → $15.00	18%
Stifel	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$27.00 → $18.00	51%
DA Davidson	May 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$21.00 → $16.00	18%
Morgan Stanley	Apr 21, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$28.00 → $22.00	48%
Raymond James	Apr 21, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$22.00 → $20.00	57%
DA Davidson	Mar 6, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$21.00	18%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Black Rock Coffee Bar is positioned favorably because its core same-store sales trend remains resilient, with 2Q SSS up 4.2% and July traffic turning positive at +1.7% even after a tough comparison, while store-level margin expanded 70 bps to 30.2% and 2Q adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to $9.4m. The outlook is further supported by improving demand drivers, including loyalty participation rising to 68% of transactions, digital sales reaching 17.2%, and menu innovation such as Fuel drinks, grilled cheese, and protein add-ons boosting mix and average ticket. Growth visibility also looks strong, as FY26 revenue guidance of $255-257m and adjusted EBITDA of $34-35m were maintained or nudged higher, while 38 new unit openings and outperforming California stores reinforce a credible path to sustained expansion.

Bear case

Black Rock Coffee Bar is pressured by intense competition from far larger chains like Starbucks, Dunkin’, and McDonald’s, plus fast-growing specialty rivals, which limits pricing power and raises the cost of defending share. Its fundamentals are also constrained by roughly 80% of locations being concentrated in Arizona, Texas, and Oregon, while expansion into Colorado and California carries limited operating history, and more than 80% of supply purchases come from just three vendors, including a single source for Fuel energy drinks that drive 24% of sales. Although FY26 guidance implies $255-257m of revenue and $33.5-34.5m of adjusted EBITDA, the outlook remains cautious because the company’s 89% founder voting control and exposure to regional, supply, and execution risks could pressure margins and reduce shareholder influence.

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