Brightstar Lottery

BRSL · NYSE

$9.36−$0.07 (−0.74%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $9.43

BRSL analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 71% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 10 analysts

Average $16.94 (+81.0% upside)

Low: $12.02
Now: $9.36
High: $22.05

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

BRSL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Truist Securities	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$13.00 → $11.00	39%
Macquarie	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$21.00 → $18.00	40%
Jefferies	Aug 13, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$12.00 → $16.00	40%
Truist Securities	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$14.00 → $13.00	39%
Deutsche Bank	Jul 1, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$15.00	25%
Argus Research	Jun 29, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	—	55%
Susquehanna	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Positive	$21.00 → $15.00	50%
Macquarie	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$22.00 → $21.00	40%
Truist Securities	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$17.00 → $14.00	39%
Stifel	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$20.00 → $19.00	23%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Brightstar Lottery is supported by resilient, contract-backed lottery economics, with most revenue coming from operating contracts and FMCs across the US and Italy, and management highlighting long-dated, recession-resilient cash flows plus a cleaner RemainCo structure after the Global Gaming & Digital spin-out. Fundamental momentum also looks solid, as Adj. EBITDA rose 15% Y/Y and iLottery wagers grew 30% Y/Y, driven by US wagers up 36%, Italy up 27%, and benefits from FX, service gross margin, and operating savings, while cashless vending pilots are already lifting same-store sales by 6-7%. The bullish case is further reinforced by a near-7% dividend yield, $72M returned to shareholders in Q1, and multiple growth catalysts in 2H26 from content, distribution, and B2C initiatives that could support a re-acceleration in revenue and EBITDA.

Bear case

Brightstar Lottery is viewed negatively because its growth is uneven and increasingly dependent on non-US markets, with Italy up 3%, Rest of Europe up 6%, but the US down about 1% and flat SSS in a key core market. Q1 fiscal 2026 net revenues of $587M missed both model and consensus, and Adj. FCF of $55M trailed expectations due to a $42M working-capital drag, signaling weaker cash conversion than implied by margins. Management also guided Q2 revenue and Adj. EBITDA below consensus and expects higher service revenue amortization, while risks from contract renewals, FX, geopolitical issues, and budget deficits add uncertainty to the unchanged FY26 outlook.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.