Avis Budget Group

CAR · NASDAQ

$102.45+$0.07 (+0.07%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $102.38

CAR analyst rating

SellConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold4
Underperform2
Sell1

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $130.45 (+27.3% upside)

Low: $94.94
Now: $102.45
High: $168.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CAR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$145.00 → $105.00	50%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$99.00 → $95.00	67%
Goldman Sachs	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$85.00 → $95.00	47%
JP Morgan	Jun 23, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$155.00 → $170.00	50%
JP Morgan	Jun 9, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$140.00 → $155.00	51%
Barclays	Jun 8, 2026	Upgrade	Underweight → Equal-Weight	$140.00 → $160.00	40%
Morgan Stanley	May 20, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$97.00 → $99.00	67%
Susquehanna	May 8, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$105.00 → $140.00	66%
Barclays	May 5, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$150.00 → $140.00	40%
JP Morgan	May 1, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$165.00 → $140.00	51%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Avis Budget Gr is positioned favorably because its brands and global rental and car-sharing platform give it diversified exposure across the Americas and International markets, supporting recurring demand and broad operating leverage. Fundamentally, the business can benefit as supply-demand conditions normalize and strategic execution improves, while investors may be underappreciating its long-term asset value given the noted gap between its implied cap rate and NAV cap rate. Near term, higher incentives, softer new lease spreads, and increased leverage create headwinds, but the current cycle appears cyclical rather than structural, which supports patience and a constructive medium-term view.

Bear case

Avis Budget Gr is under pressure because recurring operating metrics are weakening, with reported and recurring FFOPU around $0.595, down 5.9% q/q, while SSREV growth slowed to 1.1% and SPNOI growth decelerated to 2%, well below its long-run average. New and renewal lease spreads are deteriorating, incentives hit a record $4.8M and remained elevated, and lease erosion in the <2-year bucket is offsetting gains elsewhere, suggesting it may take 9-12 months to work through above-market rents. Liquidity also fell $48M q/q to $467M and leverage rose, with reported net debt/adj. EBITDA at 9.8x, limiting financial flexibility and reinforcing a negative fundamental outlook.

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