Carlsmed

CARL · NASDAQ

$14.18+$0.52 (+3.81%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $13.66

CARL analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $19.58 (+38.1% upside)

Low: $17.17
Now: $14.18
High: $24.15

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CARL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
BTIG	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$23.00 → $24.00	48%
BTIG	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$23.00	48%
Truist Securities	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$18.00 → $20.00	50%
Needham	Jul 1, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$17.00	39%
BTIG	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$23.00	48%
Truist Securities	Apr 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$20.00 → $18.00	50%
Goldman Sachs	Apr 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00 → $17.00	48%
BTIG	Dec 15, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$24.00	48%
Truist Securities	Nov 7, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$18.00 → $20.00	50%
BTIG	Nov 7, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$21.00 → $24.00	48%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Carlsmed is well positioned for durable growth because its AI-enabled aprevo platform is differentiated, clinically validated, and increasingly preferred by surgeons seeking better alignment and lower revision rates than stock implants. The company has translated that product advantage into rapid commercial momentum, with revenue growing at a 92% CAGR from 2023 to 2025, active surgeons reaching 284 as of 1Q26, and FY26 revenue guided to about $74 million to $78 million with gross margin expected in the mid- to high-70%s. Additional upside comes from the cervical launch, six-day delivery, favorable reimbursement, and a capital-light model that should support profitability on a lower revenue base than traditional spine peers.

Bear case

Carlsmed is a promising but still highly vulnerable growth story, with its outlook hinging on rapid surgeon adoption of aprevo, sustained ~43% CAGR through FY28, and successful expansion beyond a concentrated customer base. The bear case already assumes revenue growth slows to 10-20%, while FY26 sales of $75.0M are paired with $100.5M of operating expenses and a $33.7M adjusted EBITDA loss, underscoring a long path to profitability. Its premium pricing and favorable reimbursement could support margin leverage, but reimbursement changes, ASP degradation, delayed cervical entry, or a tougher competitive backdrop could quickly pressure growth and valuation.

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