CareDx

CDNA · NASDAQ

$69.20+$2.12 (+3.16%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:57 PM ET

Prev close $67.08

CDNA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $60.01 (−13.3% downside)

Low: $46.46
Now: $69.20
High: $77.70

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CDNA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Canaccord Genuity	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$65.00 → $80.00	55%
BTIG	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00 → $74.00	54%
Canaccord Genuity	Sep 2, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$65.00	55%
BTIG	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $60.00	54%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$46.00	40%
BTIG	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$28.00 → $45.00	54%
BTIG	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$26.00 → $28.00	54%
BTIG	Feb 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$25.00 → $26.00	54%
Wells Fargo	Feb 25, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$18.00 → $21.00	66%
Wells Fargo	Dec 15, 2025	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$14.00 → $18.00	66%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

CareDx is viewed positively because the final transplant LCD removed a major reimbursement overhang, preserved the HeartCare bundle, and left current kidney, heart, and lung utilization below the new volume limits, creating clear runway for surveillance growth. The company also delivered a strong Q2 with revenue of $132 million, adjusted EBITDA of $25 million, and raised its 2026 revenue guide to $490 million-$500 million while lifting testing volume and ASP assumptions, signaling durable core momentum. Its outlook is further strengthened by the Naveris acquisition, which adds a faster-growing oncology MRD platform with about $34 million of 2025 revenue, 65% gross margins, and an expected 30%-40% annual growth profile that should broaden the company’s mix and valuation.

Bear case

CareDx is facing a difficult path to durable growth because its strategy depends on successfully commercializing additional diagnostic solutions that require heavy R&D, clinical validation, funding, clinician acceptance, and approvals, all of which can take years and may never fully materialize. The stock is also exposed to meaningful reimbursement and adoption risk, as clinicians and transplant centers may be slow to change historical practices, and the July 17, 2025 draft LCD episode showed how quickly investor sentiment can weaken when utilization limits threaten test demand and TAM assumptions. Even though management later suggested actual utilization was below the draft limits and the annualized revenue headwind may have been only $15-30M, the company remains vulnerable to pricing, competition, regulatory, and execution risks across a revenue base that is still concentrated in U.S. testing services.

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