Carlyle Group

CG · NASDAQ

$37.31+$0.75 (+2.05%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:31 PM ET

Prev close $36.56

CG analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 14 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 22 analysts

Average $58.82 (+57.7% upside)

Low: $49.49
Now: $37.31
High: $76.65

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Piper Sandler	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$54.00 → $48.00	37%
UBS	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$70.00 → $60.00	43%
TD Cowen	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$54.00 → $42.00	53%
Barclays	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$64.00 → $53.00	57%
RBC Capital	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$58.00 → $48.00	17%
Wells Fargo	Oct 2, 2026	Initiates	Equal-Weight	$43.00	63%
Piper Sandler	Sep 24, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$54.00	37%
UBS	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$63.00 → $70.00	43%
Evercore ISI Group	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$48.00 → $51.00	62%
Barclays	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$57.00 → $64.00	57%

The case for and against

Updated Feb 9, 2026

Bull case

Carlyle Group reported total assets under management (AUM) of $474.1 billion, along with fee-earning AUM amounting to $332.0 billion as of September 2025, indicating strong foundational growth in its investment capabilities. The company operates across three core segments, with global credit being a significant contributor at $208.5 billion, underscoring its diversified portfolio and appeal to institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. Additionally, the firm’s global presence with 29 offices and over 3,100 active carry fund investors across 87 countries positions it favorably for sustained growth and investment opportunities in the future.

Bear case

Carlyle Group is facing significant challenges, particularly in its global private equity segment, which includes assets with underperforming production metrics such as the declining output from Oksut and stream-impacted performance from Mount Milligan, leading to noteworthy discounts to spot pricing. The company's gold equivalent production has decreased markedly since 2022, and while an organic pipeline for growth is anticipated, it is not expected to materialize until 2028-2029, adding further uncertainty to future performance. Additionally, Mount Milligan, constituting approximately 50% of net asset value and accounting for around 70% of production through the end of 2027, has consistently missed initial production guidance and is projected to underperform compared to industry peers by roughly 25%.

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