Chord Energy

CHRD · NASDAQ

$152.22−$2.26 (−1.46%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:41 PM ET

Prev close $154.48

CHRD analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 71% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy12
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 19 analysts

Average $175.71 (+15.4% upside)

Low: $146.45
Now: $152.22
High: $220.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CHRD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
UBS	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$193.00 → $197.00	55%
Scotiabank	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Sector Outperform	$192.00	59%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$169.00 → $178.00	66%
Wells Fargo	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$175.00 → $174.00	40%
Truist Securities	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$180.00 → $195.00	63%
UBS	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$184.00 → $193.00	55%
Mizuho	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$175.00 → $179.00	60%
UBS	Sep 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$189.00 → $184.00	55%
Jefferies	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$133.00 → $150.00	58%
Truist Securities	Sep 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$166.00 → $180.00	63%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 3, 2026

Bull case

Chord Energy is supported by a rare combination of scale, asset quality, and disciplined capital allocation, with a dominant Williston Basin position of about 1.3 million net acres, 10+ years of inventory depth, and a technical shift to 3- and 4-mile laterals that should enhance capital efficiency and NAV. The sale of its non-operated Marcellus assets for $550 million, implied at about 6x EBITDA and with $55 million already received as a deposit, reinforces the value of its portfolio and should help simplify the story around a high-quality pure-play oil focus. Fundamentally, its low-leverage balance sheet, $4.59 billion of FY25 revenue, $6.7 billion returned to shareholders since 2021, and estimated 18.6% free cash flow in 2026 all support continued buybacks, a $1.30 quarterly base dividend, and strong resilience even if 1Q26 production is temporarily light.

Bear case

Chord Energy is viewed negatively because its valuation still depends on favorable assumptions, including 5-year strip pricing and long-term mid-cycle pricing, while trading at 3.7x ’26e EV/EBITDA and 6.9% FCF/EV yield leaves limited margin for basin-specific setbacks. Near term, 1Q26 is expected to be the production trough, with winter storms, fewer new wells, and elevated unit operating costs likely pressuring quarterly metrics even as it may still generate about 3% of market cap in free cash flow. Its single-basin Williston exposure also heightens risk from pipelines, state regulation, pricing dynamics, LNG/power demand, M&A, and interest rates, making execution gains and 4-mile laterals vulnerable to external shocks.

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