Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG · NYSE

$29.65−$0.20 (−0.67%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $29.85

CMG analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 26 analysts over the last 12 months. 69% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy18
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 34 analysts

Average $44.82 (+51.2% upside)

Low: $36.36
Now: $29.65
High: $55.65

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CMG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $43.00	57%
Raymond James	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$42.50 → $37.00	57%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$39.00 → $40.00	48%
Stephens & Co.	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$40.00 → $38.00	24%
JP Morgan	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$40.00 → $37.00	64%
Seaport Global	Sep 16, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	—	54%
Mizuho	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$43.00	55%
B of A Securities	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00 → $53.00	49%
Baird	Aug 24, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Neutral	$44.00 → $40.00	51%
BTIG	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00	53%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Chipotle Mexican Grill is supported by a recovering sales cadence, with 1Q26 same-store sales up 0.5%, revenue rising 7.4% to $3.09 billion, and digital sales reaching 38.6% of mix, while management’s conservative flat% FY26 comp guidance appears to leave room for upside. Its bullish case is strengthened by menu innovation, loyalty revamp, and repeated protein LTOs that are lifting traffic, alongside HEEP deployment now in more than 600 restaurants and expected to reach 2,000 by year end, with management reiterating a 2%-4% same-store sales lift after implementation. The company also benefits from strong unit economics, with new stores sustaining about 80% of mature volumes and value perceptions staying above fast-casual peers, supporting durable expansion and share gains.

Bear case

Chipotle Mexican Grill is facing a negative setup because 2026 same-store sales are guided to flat even after a modestly positive start, while tougher 2H comparisons and slower marketing spend could limit traffic gains. Margins remain under pressure from food, labor, utilities, and delivery costs, with 1Q26 restaurant-level margin down to 23.3% and full-year cost of sales still expected around 4%, leaving earnings leverage highly dependent on volume rather than pricing. The company also faces macro, inflation, competition, and execution risks from ongoing unit expansion, which could constrain sales, offset share repurchases, and make any sustained recovery in profitability difficult.

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