Coherent

COHR · NYSE

$231.80−$0.22 (−0.09%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $232.02

COHR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 88% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy13
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 26 analysts

Average $418.31 (+80.5% upside)

Low: $282.80
Now: $231.80
High: $525.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

COHR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$395.00 → $275.00	65%
B. Riley Securities	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$345.00 → $297.00	61%
Rosenblatt	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$500.00	56%
Bernstein	Sep 30, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$350.00	0%
Rosenblatt	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$500.00	56%
Deutsche Bank	Sep 1, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$400.00	57%
Jefferies	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$375.00 → $420.00	73%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$330.00 → $375.00	62%
B. Riley Securities	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$309.00 → $345.00	61%
Rosenblatt	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$425.00 → $500.00	56%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Coherent is positioned for durable upside because AI data center demand is translating into strong order momentum across 800G, 1.6T, OCS, and upcoming CPO/NPO products, with management describing CY27 capacity as effectively sold out and bookings extending into CY28. The company’s vertically integrated breadth in InP lasers, transceivers, silicon photonics, specialty fiber, and assembly should let it capture more value per link while supporting margin expansion, as gross margin rose to 40.2% and is expected to improve further with 6-inch InP scaling and better mix. Revenue strength is already visible, with Datacenter Communications up 19% Q/Q to $1.62 billion and total revenue at $2.05 billion, while the path to a roughly $3 billion quarterly run-rate by 4Q27 underscores a multi-year growth runway.

Bear case

Coherent is facing a negative setup because its upside depends on aggressive AI adoption assumptions while the timing of demand for 800G and 1.6T products could prove slower than expected over the next 12 months. Its Industrial segment already missed by about $55 million, or 11%, with revenue of $431 million down 3% sequentially and 16% year over year, signaling weak broad-based end-market demand despite pockets of strength in semicap and display equipment. Meanwhile, net debt rose to $629 million from $143 million on negative free cash flow, elevated capex to double internal InP production by calendar year-end, and added tariff, macro, and carrier-spending risks that could pressure margins, cash flow, and valuation.

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