Commvault Systems

CVLT · NASDAQ

$155.85+$3.06 (+2.00%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $152.79

CVLT analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 19 analysts over the last 12 months. 63% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy12
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 21 analysts

Average $163.01 (+4.6% upside)

Low: $131.30
Now: $155.85
High: $210.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CVLT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Mizuho	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$175.00 → $185.00	100%
RBC Capital	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$150.00 → $160.00	50%
Scotiabank	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$130.00 → $160.00	54%
Truist Securities	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$155.00 → $182.00	95%
Oppenheimer	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$150.00 → $175.00	59%
Keybanc	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$125.00 → $175.00	76%
Mizuho	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$140.00 → $175.00	100%
Stephens & Co.	Jun 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$135.00 → $155.00	77%
Mizuho	Jun 10, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$130.00 → $140.00	100%
Wolfe Research	May 1, 2026	Initiates	Peer Perform	—	100%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

CommVault Systems is well positioned to compound growth as cyber resilience shifts from a “good to have” to a mission-critical priority, with strong demand from ransomware protection, data sovereignty, cloud modernization, and consolidation of fragmented backup tools. Its momentum is supported by accelerating subscription and SaaS metrics, including ARR of $1,122M, subscription ARR of $989M, SaaS ARR growth above 40%, and strong free cash flow of $132M, while management also expects 35-45% of FY27 net-new subscription ARR to come from identity resilience. The bullish case is further strengthened by product innovation around agentic AI and identity resilience, which should deepen cross-sell opportunities, lift FY27 subscriber ARR growth toward 20-21% YoY, and keep the business insulated from broader IT budget rotation.

Bear case

CommVault Systems is facing a negative fundamental setup because its valuation is vulnerable to multiple compression if investor sentiment weakens or IT spending slows, while execution risk remains elevated in the backup and recovery software market and in the SaaS transition. FY27 guidance also pointed to mixed fundamentals, with revenue of $1,305M and free cash flow of $250M-$260M slightly below consensus, even though EBIT margin of 20.5% beat expectations and SaaS ARR was guided to at least $500M. Competitive pressure from Rubrik, Cohesity, Veeam, and the Cohesity/Veritas merger, plus shorter invoice duration, FX headwinds, and higher exposure to cybersecurity threats in SaaS-delivered offerings, further cloud the outlook.

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