Dollar Tree

DLTR · NASDAQ

$124.96+$1.81 (+1.47%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $123.15

DLTR analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 20 analysts over the last 12 months. 45% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold8
Underperform3
Sell0

12-month price target · 28 analysts

Average $138.20 (+10.6% upside)

Low: $98.98
Now: $124.96
High: $173.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

DLTR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Loop Capital	Oct 1, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$130.00 → $140.00	53%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$140.00 → $135.00	69%
Barclays	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$140.00 → $160.00	55%
Piper Sandler	Aug 31, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$114.00 → $121.00	59%
UBS	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$145.00 → $150.00	70%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$130.00 → $145.00	61%
Truist Securities	Aug 25, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$136.00 → $138.00	62%
Guggenheim	Aug 25, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$135.00 → $145.00	63%
Jefferies	Aug 19, 2026	Upgrade	Underperform → Hold	$85.00 → $135.00	59%
Wells Fargo	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$145.00 → $155.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Dollar Tree is viewed positively because its multi-price strategy is expanding the brand’s relevance while preserving core value, with multi-price reaching about 17% of sales and helping drive average ticket growth of 3.3% and strong comparable sales of +3.7% in Q2. Its fundamentals also look solid, as revenue rose 7.0% to $4.89 billion, gross margin expanded to 42.9%, and the company repurchased 5.6 million shares for $605 million, supporting earnings and per-share value. With annual free cash flow above $1 billion, cash of $1 billion, and debt-to-EBITDA of just 0.7x, the company has the financial flexibility to keep investing in stores, marketing, and buybacks while sustaining long-term momentum.

Bear case

Dollar Tree is viewed negatively because its near-term guidance points to weaker profitability than expected, with Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.80-$0.95 versus $1.40 consensus and a $0.50 tariff-refund reimbursement headwind, while Q4 gross margin is implied to decline year over year. The business also faces structural execution risk from its turnaround at Family Dollar, where margin expansion has lagged, and from the challenge of profitably growing in smaller counties without enough sales volume. Even with over $19 billion in fiscal 2025 sales, rising input costs, consumer resistance to higher price points, and intensified competition could pressure both same-store sales and margins.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.