Encore Capital Group

ECPG · NASDAQ

$103.16+$2.54 (+2.52%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $100.62

ECPG analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 5 analysts

Average $117.98 (+14.4% upside)

Low: $113.12
Now: $103.16
High: $126.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ECPG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Truist Securities	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$105.00 → $112.00	68%
Citizens	Jun 17, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$108.00 → $115.00	59%
Citizens	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$90.00 → $108.00	59%
Truist Securities	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $105.00	68%
Citizens	Feb 26, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$75.00 → $90.00	59%
Truist Securities	Feb 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$59.00 → $80.00	68%
Citizens	Jan 20, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$59.00 → $75.00	59%
Janney Montgomery Scott	Nov 6, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$56.00 → $62.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Encore Capital Group is supported by a strong U.S.-focused operating backdrop, with elevated charge-off supply, stable employment, rational competition, and record collections that drove a 1Q26 beat-and-raise, including $718 million of gross collections, $475 million of revenue, and $3.86 of GAAP EPS. Its fundamentals are further strengthened by multi-year technology and AI investments that lifted the cash efficiency margin to 60.9%, improved portfolio yields, and allowed leverage to fall to 2.3x while free cash flow rose to $328 million. Recent refinancings also lowered funding costs, with annual interest expense expected to decline by under $15 million, enhancing profitability visibility into 2027 and supporting greater earnings durability.

Bear case

Encore Capital Group is facing a fundamentally risky setup despite improved 2026 guidance, as its business depends on estimating future collections, cyclical debt portfolio pricing, and a heavily regulated environment with low barriers to entry. The company also expects $25 million to $30 million of one-time refinancing costs in the second quarter, including $23 million in prepayment penalties, which creates near-term earnings drag even if second-half pretax income improves. Although global collections are projected at $2.8 billion and EPS at $13.00, deterioration in the broader economy, future impairment charges, and foreign currency and operational risks from India could quickly pressure results.

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