elf Beauty

ELF · NYSE

$114.74+$1.26 (+1.11%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:57 PM ET

Prev close $113.48

ELF analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 18 analysts over the last 12 months. 72% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy12
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $106.25 (−7.4% downside)

Low: $65.65
Now: $114.74
High: $133.35

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ELF analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$106.00 → $130.00	58%
Jefferies	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $132.00	38%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$90.00 → $103.00	67%
Citigroup	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$118.00 → $130.00	58%
Baird	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$105.00 → $120.00	52%
Raymond James	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Strong Buy	$100.00 → $117.00	55%
Bernstein	Sep 17, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$121.00 → $127.00	83%
B. Riley Securities	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $115.00	34%
B of A Securities	Sep 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $118.00	55%
Citigroup	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $118.00	58%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

e.l.f. Beauty is attractive because its growth algorithm is being driven by strong innovation, expanding prestige-inspired offerings, and a proven marketing engine that keeps new launches like Main Stain Lip Marker and Power Grip among the top sellers in mass cosmetics. Management’s FY27 net sales guidance of +18-20%, with Rhode contributing about 13 points and core e.l.f. still expected to add roughly 5-7 points, supports confidence that the company can compound even as Rhode scales internationally into 19 new countries and Sephora Europe. The company also has meaningful margin and cash-generation power, with 1Q adjusted EBITDA of $168M, implied FY27 adjusted EBITDA of $401-407M, and a growing haircare opportunity backed by 99% positive consumer sentiment and about 50% new-to-brand buyers.

Bear case

e.l.f. Beauty is facing a challenging fundamental backdrop as intense competition in mass beauty pressures pricing and makes share gains harder, while the company’s reliance on third-party manufacturers and a concentrated retailer base leaves results vulnerable to supply disruptions and strained relationships. Nearly 60% of sales come from its top three customers, with ~40%+ tied to Target and Walmart, so any slowdown in shelf-space expansion or retailer support could materially weaken growth. Recent signs are also concerning: core e.l.f. declined HSD, and permanently lowering prices on 10% of the assortment suggests weaker-than-expected volume response and limited pricing power.

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