Shift4 Payments

FOUR · NYSE

$40.46+$0.69 (+1.73%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:46 PM ET

Prev close $39.77

FOUR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 23 analysts over the last 12 months. 57% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy13
Hold10
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 23 analysts

Average $56.15 (+38.8% upside)

Low: $40.40
Now: $40.46
High: $100.80

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FOUR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
B of A Securities	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$42.00	67%
Raymond James	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$51.00 → $50.00	45%
BTIG	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00 → $50.00	46%
B. Riley Securities	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$96.00 → $94.00	52%
Susquehanna	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Positive	$78.00 → $63.00	42%
Mizuho	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$55.00 → $46.00	46%
StoneX	Sep 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$67.00 → $56.00	55%
RBC Capital	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$67.00	64%
RBC Capital	Aug 31, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$63.00 → $67.00	64%
Truist Securities	Aug 27, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$50.00 → $49.00	68%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Shift4 Payments is viewed positively because its Shift4 One rollout can reaccelerate organic growth, with the product live in 12 countries and management targeting 15 or more by year-end, while the business still supports about ~11% FY27 organic growth and roughly ~$500M in expected FCF this year. The company’s fundamentals are strengthened by recurring revenue from processing fees and subscriptions, deep integration that raises switching costs, broad exposure to hotels, travel, luxury, and sports entertainment, and an expanding international footprint across six continents with more than 80,000 merchants outside the Americas. Despite near-term leverage of 3.7x and elevated interest expense, the combination of a ~13% FY26E adjusted FCF yield, a ~16% FCF yield, and ongoing buybacks provides valuation support and leaves room for EPS growth to reaccelerate in 2027.

Bear case

Shift4 Payments is facing a negative fundamental setup because organic growth has decelerated to high single digits in 2H26E from high-teens a year ago, while consensus FY26 and FY27 FCF estimates have already been cut 33% and 32% as slower top-line growth, higher interest expense, and weak Global Blue timing pressure results. Financing costs have risen sharply, with net interest expense expected at $270M or more in 2026 versus negligible levels in 2023, and leverage still sits at 3.7x, masking underlying EBITDA progress and stalling EPS growth from near 100% to flat. On top of that, investor confidence is being hurt by uncertainty around churn, intense competition in restaurant payments, integration risk from acquisitions, and the war-driven disruption to tax-free shopping that affects about 20% of revenue.

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