Fermi

FRMI · NASDAQ

$2.94−$0.08 (−2.65%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $3.02

FRMI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 90% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 12 analysts

Average $17.03 (+479.4% upside)

Low: $6.06
Now: $2.94
High: $36.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FRMI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$12.00 → $8.00	40%
Macquarie	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$15.00	47%
Macquarie	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$18.00 → $15.00	47%
Macquarie	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$18.00	47%
Mizuho	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$27.00 → $11.00	48%
Stifel	Jun 23, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$29.00 → $17.00	51%
Evercore ISI Group	May 15, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → In-Line	$20.00 → $11.00	17%
Macquarie	Apr 20, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$20.00	47%
Macquarie	Apr 1, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$25.00 → $20.00	47%
UBS	Apr 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$30.00 → $8.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Fermi is viewed positively because its first binding customer agreement with TensorWave, plus AMD’s credit support for the initial 222MW lease at Project Matador, materially de-risks commercialization and strengthens financing visibility. The lease is expected to support tens of thousands of next-generation GPUs and generate about $6.5bn of contracted revenue over a 15-year term, while Phase 2 and 3 could expand the relationship to 650MW gross. On the supply side, the 2.6GW Hillcore alliance, the arrival of three Siemens F-class turbines, the expanded ~8,400-acre site, and $431m of convertible financing all support a path toward initial power within 6 mo. and ~1.5GW over the next 18-24 mo.

Bear case

Fermi is viewed negatively because its revenue and tenant ramp could come in below management plans if pricing weakens, AI demand softens, or the offering proves less competitive than established peers. Execution risk is elevated by its dependence on nuclear buildout, third-party supply chains, and grid connectivity, any of which could cause delays, regulatory setbacks, or unsafe waste-handling issues. Financially, the model already points to strain, with FY26E EBITDA revised to ($225.3m) from ($263.9m) and FY27E EBITDA cut to $194m from $479.7m as energization is pushed into 2H'27, while the business remains vulnerable to cost overruns and heavier capital needs.

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