Freshpet

FRPT · NASDAQ

$66.05−$0.07 (−0.11%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $66.12

FRPT analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 63% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $86.10 (+30.4% upside)

Low: $70.70
Now: $66.05
High: $109.20

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FRPT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$85.00 → $80.00	58%
Wells Fargo	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$82.00 → $77.00	36%
Needham	Oct 1, 2026	Initiates	Hold	—	32%
DA Davidson	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$101.00 → $95.00	33%
TD Cowen	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$80.00 → $85.00	58%
Stifel	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$66.00 → $78.00	41%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 6, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$77.00 → $72.00	50%
JP Morgan	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$68.00 → $72.00	40%
Wells Fargo	Jul 8, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$75.00 → $70.00	36%
B of A Securities	Jul 1, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$75.00 → $70.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 3, 2026

Bull case

Freshpet is supported by a still-underpenetrated refrigerated dog food category that has consistently gained share even as overall dog food volumes decline, with refrigerated remaining under 3% of total volume and leaving meaningful runway for growth. The company appears to be executing well on household penetration, higher share of bowl, and distribution expansion at Costco, Walmart, Tractor Supply, and ecommerce, while early competitive entries have not yet shown clear signs of materially impairing retail productivity or sales momentum. Fundamentally, its outlook is reinforced by operating leverage from a growing manufacturing footprint, new bag technology, and mix of cost efficiencies that support gross margin expansion toward 48.7% and adj. EBITDA margin expansion to 19.6% in 2027 despite only 8% revenue growth.

Bear case

Freshpet is facing a tougher fundamental setup as its category share gains slow, new entrants like Blue Buffalo and Kirkland pressure pricing, and survey data show price is the biggest barrier for incremental consumers. With total dog food volumes still under pressure and household growth decelerating, the company is increasingly reliant on converting existing users into MVP households, even as acquisition costs remain elevated and penetration near 18% by year-end 2027 may not be enough to offset slower growth. Rising input and logistics costs, plus only modest plant leverage and other SG&A improvement, could leave 2027 gross margin below 49% and EBITDA margin below 20%, implying downside to revenue, earnings, and valuation.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.