Five Star Bancorp

FSBC · NASDAQ

$43.24+$0.55 (+1.29%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $42.69

FSBC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $52.84 (+22.2% upside)

Low: $50.50
Now: $43.24
High: $57.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FSBC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
DA Davidson	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$53.00 → $55.00	78%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	May 1, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$41.00 → $43.00	82%
DA Davidson	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $48.50	78%
Stephens & Co.	Apr 29, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$41.00 → $43.00	67%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jan 29, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$40.00 → $41.00	82%
DA Davidson	Jan 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$43.00 → $45.00	78%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 30, 2025	Maintains	Market Perform	$35.00 → $40.00	82%
Raymond James	Oct 29, 2025	Maintains	Outperform	$34.00 → $40.00	66%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Five Star is benefiting from a combination of strong balance-sheet expansion, resilient profitability, and disciplined funding execution, as 1Q26 EPS of $0.87 beat both the estimate and Street consensus while PPNR/share reached $1.30. Net interest income rose to $43.5M, NIM expanded 4bp to 3.70%, and average earning assets grew 18% LQA, supported by lower deposit and liability costs that offset modest loan-yield pressure. Asset quality remained stable with NPAs of $2.9M, only $0.6M of NCOs, and ACL at 1.10%, while management’s 10%–12% growth guide for loans and deposits underscores a durable growth runway.

Bear case

Five Star is challenged by a concentrated balance sheet and operating profile that heightens sensitivity to any regional slowdown in California, especially because its lending is heavily skewed toward CRE at about 624% of TRBC. While deposits rose sharply, with end-of-period deposits up 25.5% quarter over quarter and core deposits up 40.4%, that strength was helped by $213M in MMA and $148M in noninterest-bearing balances and still came alongside $82M of wholesale deposit runoff. The outlook remains negative because lower-for-longer rates pressure net interest margin, asset quality could weaken in a CRE-heavy portfolio, and exposure is concentrated in its 30 largest borrowers and 18 largest deposit relationships, increasing funding and credit risk.

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