FTAI Aviation

FTAI · NASDAQ

$157.95−$5.39 (−3.30%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $163.34

FTAI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $370.12 (+134.3% upside)

Low: $292.90
Now: $157.95
High: $630.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FTAI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$360.00 → $310.00	61%
Macquarie	Oct 16, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$305.00	0%
Barclays	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$350.00 → $310.00	50%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$319.00 → $360.00	61%
BTIG	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$400.00 → $350.00	32%
RBC Capital	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$350.00 → $300.00	59%
BTIG	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$340.00 → $400.00	32%
Citizens	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$325.00 → $375.00	32%
Morgan Stanley	Mar 24, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$266.00 → $293.00	61%
BTIG	Mar 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$335.00 → $340.00	32%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

FTAI Aviation is positioned for long-term value creation because its proprietary MRE model benefits from airlines seeking lower-cost alternatives amid OEM production and aftermarket constraints, driving market-share gains toward a 25% penetration target in the CFM56/V2500 aftermarket. Its expanding SCI platform adds an asset-light fee stream while securing engine feedstock and future demand, and management expects annual module capacity to rise by 1,000 units to 3,000 at maturity, with 14% of the aftermarket already captured. The newly confirmed $1.465bn Mod-1 order and the broader FTAI Power opportunity strengthen the outlook by converting run-out CFM56 engines into data-center power assets, supporting higher 2027 EBITDA potential despite near-term AL softness.

Bear case

FTAI Aviation is facing a weaker fundamental setup because Aviation Leasing underperformed sharply, with 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of $88.2mn versus consensus of $116.3mn and BTIG’s $126.7mn, as capacity was redirected to Aerospace Products and aircraft sale closings slipped. The 2026 AP adj. EBITDA outlook of $1.05bn was reaffirmed, but the AL outlook was cut by $100mn, highlighting execution risk and a less favorable mix even as management shifts toward an asset-light model. The added pressure from AP margins moderating into the low-30% range, after previously targeting ~35% for FTAI Power, supports a cautious view on earnings quality and near-term visibility.

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