Frontdoor

FTDR · NASDAQ

$80.48+$0.64 (+0.80%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $79.84

FTDR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 60% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $93.45 (+16.1% upside)

Low: $66.77
Now: $80.48
High: $110.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FTDR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Goldman Sachs	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$91.00 → $81.00	55%
JP Morgan	Aug 24, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$95.00	27%
Benchmark	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$80.00 → $96.00	33%
Oppenheimer	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$70.00 → $100.00	52%
Truist Securities	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$82.00 → $105.00	68%
Benchmark	Mar 26, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$80.00	33%
Goldman Sachs	Mar 2, 2026	Upgrade	Sell → Neutral	$50.00 → $67.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Jan 19, 2025

Bull case

Frontdoor Inc. has demonstrated strong financial performance, highlighted by a sequential 3% increase in direct-to-consumer (DTC) policies and a significant 41% rise in its Other category revenue to $34 million, driven primarily by higher on-demand service sales, particularly HVAC units. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $165 million in the third quarter, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase, supported by higher revenue, lower claims, and improved efficiencies, alongside total revenue of $542 million, which exceeded both the prior quarter and consensus estimates. Additionally, customer retention rates have shown an upward trend, reaching 76.6% in the third quarter, reinforcing Frontdoor's competitive position within the home service market.

Bear case

Frontdoor Inc. faces a challenging financial outlook characterized by a substantial decline in key revenue streams, with Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue showing a significant drop of 14%, attributed to ongoing consumer stress and high interest rates. Furthermore, the company's guidance indicates projected contractions in various segments, including a 15% decline in DTC and a 15% decrease in Real Estate, alongside a projected 3-5% decline in the number of warranties year over year. Additionally, the company's cash from operations fell 7% compared to the previous year, exacerbating concerns about its financial health amidst sustained inflationary pressures and potential increases in claims costs.

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