Geo Group

GEO · NYSE

$27.97+$0.20 (+0.72%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $27.77

GEO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 2 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 5 analysts

Average $38.51 (+37.7% upside)

Low: $31.31
Now: $27.97
High: $42.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

GEO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Jones Trading	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$40.00	44%
Jones Trading	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00 → $40.00	44%
Northland Capital Markets	Jun 26, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$30.00 → $40.00	28%
Jones Trading	Mar 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00	44%
Jones Trading	Feb 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$37.00 → $33.00	44%
Jones Trading	Nov 7, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$50.00 → $37.00	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

GEO Group is benefiting from a materially stronger balance sheet after retiring about $650 million of 8.625% secured debt, which cuts roughly $56 million of annual cash interest and lowers pro forma gross debt to about $890 million, or roughly 1.6x the $555 million FY26 adjusted EBITDA midpoint. This deleveraging meaningfully expands financial flexibility, with about $220 million of debt-funded room remaining under the 2.00x indenture test plus free cash flow, while the revolver extension and higher restricted payment capacity support future capital returns. Operationally, the company also appears to have improving demand, as ICE census at GEO facilities rose to about 24,000 from about 21,000 at the 1Q call, against a national ICE population of roughly 68,000 across 225 sites.

Bear case

GEO Group is viewed negatively because its earnings are highly exposed to a small set of government customers, making revenue vulnerable to contract cancellations, budget shortfalls, and election-driven policy shifts that can accelerate decarceration and suppress demand. Its business also carries elevated ESG, political, and legal risks, while private facilities lack the liability shields of public institutions and can face costly lawsuits, compliance burdens, and reputational pressure that may limit funding access. Although FY26 guidance was raised to $550-560mm AEBITDA and $1.27-$1.32 EPS with revenue of $2.95-$3.05B, leverage remains a concern with $1.56B of debt at a 930bp weighted coupon, constraining flexibility and shareholder returns.

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