Graphic Packaging Holding

GPK · NYSE

$8.49+$0.07 (+0.83%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $8.42

GPK analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 10% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold7
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $12.63 (+48.8% upside)

Low: $10.10
Now: $8.49
High: $18.90

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

GPK analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$10.00 → $9.00	52%
RBC Capital	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$10.00 → $9.00	46%
Truist Securities	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$11.00 → $9.00	46%
UBS	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$12.00 → $9.50	29%
Citigroup	Oct 2, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$13.00 → $9.00	56%
RBC Capital	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$11.00 → $10.00	46%
JP Morgan	Sep 23, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Overweight	$12.50 → $11.50	35%
B of A Securities	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$14.00 → $13.00	52%
UBS	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$11.00 → $12.00	29%
Wells Fargo	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$9.00 → $10.00	51%

The case for and against

Updated Mar 27, 2026

Bull case

Graphic Packaging Holding Co has demonstrated a steady trajectory of volume growth driven by its tuck-in acquisition strategy, which aims to expand into growth categories and regions. The company is positioned to achieve significant productivity enhancements, potentially delivering 5-6% EBITDA growth and double-digit EPS growth despite flat volume trends. Furthermore, GPK is expected to effectively manage rising commodity input costs through price adjustments, improved volume/mix, and performance benefits, contributing to greater stability in pricing and margins compared to the broader containerboard market.

Bear case

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. has revised its EBITDA estimates downward for Q3, FY25, and FY26, now projecting figures of $380 million, $1.435 billion, and $1.5 billion respectively, reflecting persistent challenges in food volumes and pricing pressures. The latest data suggests a slight decline in food unit sales, with notable weaknesses in specific categories, indicating a sluggish consumer packaged goods environment that is expected to hinder future volume growth, particularly in the second half of FY25. Additionally, factors such as an oversupply of bleached paperboard, rising capital expenditures, and production headwinds in the latter part of the fiscal year contribute to concerns regarding future free cash flow, further complicating the capital return prospects for the company.

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