Goosehead Insurance

GSHD · NASDAQ

$47.01+$1.47 (+3.23%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $45.54

GSHD analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 12 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold5
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $69.20 (+47.2% upside)

Low: $44.44
Now: $47.01
High: $105.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

GSHD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Truist Securities	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$58.00 → $48.00	68%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$72.00 → $66.00	61%
Citizens	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$100.00 → $80.00	69%
Piper Sandler	Oct 6, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Neutral	$72.00 → $48.00	73%
JP Morgan	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$68.00 → $60.00	81%
UBS	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$70.00 → $72.00	68%
RBC Capital	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$55.00 → $58.00	44%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$80.00 → $72.00	61%
Piper Sandler	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$52.00 → $72.00	73%
JP Morgan	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$55.00 → $60.00	81%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Goosehead Insurance is positioned to outperform because its franchise and corporate channels are becoming more productive, while accelerating carrier pricing could lift renewal premiums and support faster-than-expected top-line growth. The company’s 2Q26 results underscored that thesis, with adjusted operating EPS of $0.64 versus $0.48 estimated, adjusted EBITDA of $37.9 million, revenue up 20.6% to $113.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 33.5%. Management also raised the low end of 2026 revenue growth guidance to 12% to 19%, and the path toward a 40%+ EBITDA margin suggests meaningful operating leverage if execution remains strong.

Bear case

Goosehead Insurance is under pressure because rising mortgage interest rates are expected to restrain new sales productivity, leading to a lower full-year 2026 EPS estimate of $2.00 from $2.15 and a reduced 2027 forecast of $2.45 from $2.55. Core revenue growth is now expected at 13-14% in the second half, below the prior 15-16% outlook, while expenses are rising in line with management guidance for a high-teens-to-low-twenties percentage increase, squeezing margins. The bearish case is further reinforced by concentration risk, with three carriers contributing more than 10% of premium, plus key person, regulatory, and catastrophe risks that could impair policy availability, commissions, and investor confidence.

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