HBT Financial

HBT · NASDAQ

$35.65+$0.44 (+1.25%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $35.21

HBT analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 6 analysts

Average $38.96 (+9.3% upside)

Low: $33.33
Now: $35.65
High: $43.05

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

HBT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$38.00 → $41.00	64%
DA Davidson	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$36.00 → $38.00	50%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$34.00 → $38.00	64%
Piper Sandler	Jun 26, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$32.00 → $34.00	72%
DA Davidson	Apr 28, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$28.00 → $31.00	50%
Piper Sandler	Apr 28, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$30.00 → $32.00	72%
Piper Sandler	Mar 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$29.00 → $30.00	72%
Raymond James	Jan 7, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$30.00	54%
Piper Sandler	Oct 21, 2025	Maintains	Neutral	$29.00 → $27.50	72%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

HBT Finl is viewed favorably because the Tri-County Financial Group deal is expected to be meaningfully earnings accretive, with 34% cost savings, only 2.4% TBV dilution, and less than a one-year earn-back, while also expanding density in Central and Northern Illinois. Its fundamentals are further supported by strong capital and profitability metrics, including pro forma 9.0% TCE, 11.8% CET1, a projected ROA of 1.65%, PTPP ROA of 2.35%, and about 19% ROTCE in 2027. The company also has a proven M&A track record, solid deposit and credit characteristics, and diversified fee income from wealth management, card income, and deposit service charges, all of which reinforce a constructive outlook.

Bear case

HBT Finl is facing a negative fundamental setup because loan and deposit balances have recently declined 7.6% and 6.7% LQA, while management only expects flat to low-single-digit loan growth next quarter and in 2H26 amid elevated payoffs. Its earnings profile is pressured by a 59bp lower NIM from TYFG, a $12.1M pre-tax loss on TYFG AFS securities, and reliance on cost savings to support the expected 12.0% EPS accretion in 2027 and 11.1% in 2028. Credit and concentration risks remain elevated, with about 50% of the loan book tied to commercial real estate, $271M in agricultural and farmland loans, and exposure to Illinois-specific economic weakness, all of which could amplify downside from rate volatility and M&A execution risk.

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