Home BancShares

HOMB · NYSE

$29.39+$0.26 (+0.89%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $29.13

HOMB analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 43% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $33.81 (+15.0% upside)

Low: $31.31
Now: $29.39
High: $37.80

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

HOMB analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$32.00 → $31.00	40%
Piper Sandler	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$36.00 → $34.00	67%
Hovde Group	Sep 8, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$34.00	0%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$30.00 → $31.00	54%
Citigroup	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$29.00 → $32.00	40%
Piper Sandler	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$33.00 → $36.00	67%
Stephens & Co.	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$32.00 → $35.00	63%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$30.00 → $32.00	61%
Benchmark	Jun 25, 2026	Initiates	Hold	—	39%
Cantor Fitzgerald	May 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$31.00 → $30.00	54%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Home BancShares is viewed favorably because it continues to deliver solid earnings quality, with 3Q26 EPS beating estimates by $0.02 per share on stronger net interest income and no provision expense, underscoring resilient profitability. Despite near-term softness from a 5.0% annualized decline in loans and a 7.5% drop in total deposits, management’s large $7B variable-rate loan book, asset-sensitive balance sheet, and expected repricing tailwinds support earnings power as rates rise. The stock also benefits from a highly profitable, high-quality franchise, improving loan pipelines, and shareholder-friendly capital deployment through repurchases, which can help offset slower growth and preserve upside.

Bear case

Home BancShares is facing a valuation and execution overhang because management is prioritizing buybacks and dividends while still carrying the burden of repurchasing the remaining ~5.4M shares issued in the MCB deal, with only ~3.2M repurchased so far. Although capital generation appears strong, the need to allocate roughly $39MM to buy back 1.3MM shares and continue repurchases into the end of this year or the first half of 2027 suggests capital returns may be masking slower underlying growth opportunities. In addition, the company’s acquisition-led strategy is constrained because talks with potential sellers continue, yet the current environment has made deals more challenging, leaving less support for meaningful earnings expansion.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.