Humana

HUM · NYSE

$427.38+$12.40 (+2.99%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:55 PM ET

Prev close $414.98

HUM analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 20 analysts over the last 12 months. 55% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy11
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 28 analysts

Average $429.06 (+0.4% upside)

Low: $282.80
Now: $427.38
High: $540.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

HUM analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Mizuho	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$468.00 → $495.00	69%
UBS	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$405.00 → $495.00	64%
Truist Securities	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$415.00 → $475.00	67%
Oppenheimer	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$475.00 → $525.00	56%
Raymond James	Oct 12, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$520.00	65%
Barclays	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$515.00 → $582.00	59%
Oppenheimer	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$405.00 → $475.00	56%
Baird	Oct 9, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Outperform	$390.00 → $596.00	34%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 7, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Overweight	$300.00 → $460.00	34%
Barclays	Sep 25, 2026	Upgrade	Equal-Weight → Overweight	$407.00 → $515.00	59%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Humana is well positioned because its core Medicare Advantage book appears set for meaningful margin expansion in 2027, with management and analysts citing 560 bps of Individual MA margin expansion potential across CY27-CY28 and EPS support from both cohort ’25 and earlier as well as cohort ’26. The outlook is further strengthened by improving visibility into medical cost trends, early favorable Stars cut points, and a likely positive 2028 Bonus Year Stars release, while CenterWell adds another layer of growth through home, primary care, and Medicaid contributions. Despite these drivers, the stock still appears undervalued relative to its long-term history, trading at 9.9x the implied $40.45 mid-point of the ’28 framework versus an ~18x P/E over the last 3, 5, and 10 years.

Bear case

Humana is challenged by a worsening fundamental mix as 60%-70% of enrollment is cohort ’25 or earlier and CY26 intra-year Individual MA growth is driven by age-ins and 3.0%-4.0% mortality, which should pressure PMPMs and steepen the MLR slope as less profitable members exit. Although management has pulled forward pricing, benefit, and geographic changes to support 25-100 bps core margin improvement and expects Group MA margin to improve 500 bps in CY26 excluding Stars, those gains may be offset by 10%-30% attrition, higher competition rates around 90.0% in January and 80.0% in February, and a likely 684 bps spread in Insurance segment MLR from 1Q26 to 4Q26E. The outlook is further weakened by near-term Medicare Advantage legislative risk, Medicaid redetermination headwinds, and low visibility into deferred care trends, while CenterWell and WCAS de novos add complexity without clear evidence of near-term financial upside.

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