Kinsale Capital Group

KNSL · NYSE

$371.99+$6.40 (+1.75%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $365.59

KNSL analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 13% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold6
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $357.38 (−3.9% downside)

Low: $261.59
Now: $371.99
High: $425.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

KNSL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$377.00 → $348.00	80%
JP Morgan	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$390.00 → $375.00	81%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$259.00 → $264.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$390.00 → $350.00	49%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$345.00 → $390.00	49%
Wells Fargo	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$366.00 → $377.00	80%
JP Morgan	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$380.00 → $390.00	81%
Wells Fargo	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$357.00 → $366.00	80%
Morgan Stanley	May 21, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$350.00 → $330.00	49%
RBC Capital	Apr 27, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$385.00 → $375.00	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Kinsale Cap Group is supported by a resilient underwriting franchise in the E&S market, where its broad appetite, disciplined pricing, and home-grown IT platform help sustain a low expense structure and best-in-class returns. Despite competitive pressure in commercial property and some longer-tail casualty lines, 1Q showed only 40 bps of core loss ratio deterioration and 4.5 points of favorable PYD, while management still expects ROEs in the low twenties or better. Higher investment income, growing cash from operations, and continued share gains in allied health, general casualty, and excess casualty underpin the view that earnings can remain strong even as topline growth moderates.

Bear case

Kinsale Cap Group is facing a fundamentally tougher operating backdrop, with sustained competition in the Excess and Surplus market limiting premium growth and pressuring pricing, especially in Commercial Property where premiums fell 28% YOY. While 1Q26 beat and high ROEs support earnings quality, management’s ability to sustain above 20% ROE is being challenged by slower growth assumptions, with 2026 GWP now seen at just +1.4% and NWP at +4.8%. Additional downside stems from underwriting and actuarial risk, potential reserve inadequacy, regulatory constraints, and founder-led key person exposure, any of which could compress margins and weaken returns.

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