Karman Holdings

KRMN · NYSE

$35.03+$1.12 (+3.30%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:58 PM ET

Prev close $33.91

KRMN analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 11 analysts over the last 12 months. 91% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $92.56 (+164.2% upside)

Low: $63.63
Now: $35.03
High: $141.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

KRMN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Macquarie	Oct 16, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$65.00	0%
Barclays	Oct 9, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$79.00	26%
RBC Capital	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$85.00 → $70.00	59%
Guggenheim	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$63.00	71%
Truist Securities	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$118.00 → $85.00	71%
Citigroup	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$76.00 → $78.00	27%
BWS Financial	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$37.00	56%
Evercore ISI Group	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$100.00 → $80.00	65%
Needham	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$125.00 → $80.00	16%
Piper Sandler	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$114.00 → $91.00	41%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Karman Holdings is viewed positively because its disclosures reinforce durable growth, margin resilience, and improving capital efficiency, including management’s confidence in ~25% organic growth through the end of the decade and sustained ~30% adj. EBITDA margins. The company’s ~95% revenue visibility in 2026, backlog strength, and post-IPO acquisitions done at roughly 10x across 4 transactions support a credible expansion story, while its contract assets plus inventory at 28% of annual revenues in 2Q26 compares favorably with the peer average of 40%. Its exposure to prioritized DoD and space programs, combined with guidance for $15-20M in FCF in 2H26 and a push to improve working capital, suggests a high-quality defense platform with improving cash generation and a strong moat.

Bear case

Karman Holdings is viewed negatively because its weak free cash flow, declining cash balance to $51.7 million, and ongoing working-capital needs suggest that growth is still being financed rather than efficiently converted into cash. Despite a $1.3 billion backlog and a 2.6x B2B in 2Q26, RPO fell sequentially by about $20 million, while heavy dependence on U.S. defense spending, with the three largest customers contributing roughly 47% of revenue, increases revenue concentration risk. The outlook is further pressured by government-contract volatility, CMMC compliance requirements by FY26, and a planned shift toward more cost-plus revenue that could compress gross margins and weaken valuation quality.

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