Louisiana-Pacific

LPX · NYSE

$72.35+$1.66 (+2.35%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Prev close $70.69

LPX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 89% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 17 analysts

Average $93.94 (+29.8% upside)

Low: $74.74
Now: $72.35
High: $112.35

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

LPX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$92.00 → $84.00	28%
B of A Securities	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $85.00	52%
Goldman Sachs	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$74.00 → $64.00	45%
Barclays	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$92.00 → $88.00	52%
DA Davidson	Sep 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$99.00	40%
Truist Securities	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$91.00 → $89.00	46%
Barclays	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$93.00 → $92.00	52%
Goldman Sachs	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$66.00 → $74.00	45%
DA Davidson	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$103.00 → $99.00	40%
Truist Securities	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$93.00 → $91.00	46%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Louisiana-Pacific is supported by a Siding franchise that is gaining traction, with management reiterating full-year Siding sales of $1.65B-$1.67B and adjusted EBITDA of $410M-$425M, while 3Q guidance calls for $460M-$470M of Siding sales and $110M-$120M of EBITDA at roughly a 25% margin. Its outlook is strengthened by strong recent order intake, the expected end of 1H destock headwinds, and improving volumes as shed destocking winds down, while SmartSide and ExpertFinish continue to expand penetration with two new builder partnerships and about 100mmsf of SmartSide expected in 2026. The company’s strong balance sheet, balanced capital allocation, and history of solid ROIC support confidence that its shift toward specialized, less commodity-exposed products can sustain above-market growth and potentially drive a valuation rerating over time.

Bear case

Louisiana-Pacific is facing a weak fundamental backdrop as 2Q adj. EPS fell to $0.40 from prior-year levels and EBITDA dropped to $79M, driven mainly by lower OSB realizations and only partially offset by Siding weakness from unplanned downtime and flooding-related disruptions. Management’s 2026 outlook was cut sharply, with consolidated EBITDA now expected at $345M to $360M versus $430M previously, while OSB remains pressured at an expected -$40M EBITDA and Siding net sales are projected to decline 2% year over year. The stock also looks vulnerable to cyclical housing demand, new OSB capacity that could keep supply overhangs in place, and margin risk from higher resin, fiber, freight, and energy costs despite some ability to pass through inflation.

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