McKesson

MCK · NYSE

$1,030.12+$19.69 (+1.95%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 5:51 PM ET

Prev close $1,010.43

MCK analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 13 analysts over the last 12 months. 77% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $1,000.80 (−2.8% downside)

Low: $853.45
Now: $1,030.12
High: $1,134.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MCK analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Mizuho	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$905.00 → $1,020.00	54%
UBS	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,080.00 → $1,200.00	70%
Leerink Partners	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$1,030.00 → $1,070.00	61%
RBC Capital	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$845.00	67%
Barclays	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$925.00 → $1,000.00	53%
RBC Capital	Aug 19, 2026	Initiates	Sector Perform	$845.00	67%
Wells Fargo	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$812.00 → $933.00	59%
TD Cowen	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$989.00 → $1,006.00	62%
UBS	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,050.00 → $1,080.00	70%
Evercore ISI Group	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$860.00 → $1,000.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

McKesson is supported by a scaled North American distribution moat, with 27 U.S. and 12 Canadian distribution centers, over one-third of medications distributed in North America, and roughly 99.9% order accuracy, which underpins resilient volume growth and customer stickiness. Its outlook is strengthened by specialty pharma expansion, as specialty already represents 54% of net U.S. manufacturer revenues, while McKesson’s specialty distribution revenue reached $90 billion in fiscal 2025 and its oncology and multispecialty segment is expected to grow at a 15.3% CAGR from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2029. The company also benefits from high-margin services and strong capital generation, including 1.3x gross debt to adjusted EBITDA, about 120% free cash flow conversion, and a planned medical-surgical spin-off that should sharpen focus on higher-growth businesses.

Bear case

McKesson is exposed to structurally thin distribution economics, with fiscal 2025 adjusted gross margin already down 40 basis points to 3.6% and core pharmaceutical distribution generating only low-single-digit gross margins, leaving limited room to absorb cost inflation or pricing pressure. Its growth engine is also vulnerable: GLP-1 prior authorizations represent about 9.5%-11.5% of RxTS revenue, or roughly $560 million to $660 million, yet employer coverage is eroding as 6% dropped coverage in 2026 and another 10% plan to in 2027, threatening the 11%-15% operating income growth goal. Added to that are policy and competitive risks from the IRA’s 2028 pricing cuts on about $28 billion of Medicare drug spend, plus customer concentration, with fiscal 2025’s 10 largest customers driving about 72% of sales.

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