MFA Financial

MFA · NYSE

$6.55+$0.14 (+2.18%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $6.41

MFA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 6 analysts

Average $10.81 (+65.1% upside)

Low: $10.10
Now: $6.55
High: $12.07

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MFA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citizens	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$11.00 → $8.00	53%
BTIG	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$10.50 → $9.50	38%
RBC Capital	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$10.00	29%
Citizens	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$11.50 → $11.00	25%
BTIG	Jun 17, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Buy	$10.50	38%
RBC Capital	Jun 3, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$11.00 → $10.00	29%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$11.00 → $10.00	53%
Citizens	May 4, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$11.00 → $11.50	25%
RBC Capital	Mar 5, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$10.00 → $11.00	57%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$10.00 → $11.00	53%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

MFA Finl is attractive because it is steadily resolving legacy credit issues, having worked through $200 million of delinquent loans in the quarter while cutting 60+ day delinquencies to 7.0% from 7.8% in 1Q, and its troubled legacy multi-family exposure is now only $360 million, or 2% of the portfolio. Its distributable earnings power is also improving, with 2Q EAD/share of $0.12 depressed by realized credit losses, but ex-loss earnings closer to $0.35, suggesting convergence toward the $0.36 common dividend as residual losses fade through early 2027. At the same time, Lima One originated $316 million in 2Q and recent vintages are tracking better, while buybacks funded by preferred issuance, plus $413 million of seasoned loan re-securitizations and $345 million of new securitizations, support book value, funding capacity, and long-term ROE.

Bear case

MFA Finl is pressured by credit-heavy exposure and leverage, leaving distributable EPS vulnerable to realized losses from troubled assets and residual write-downs over the next few quarters. Its net interest spread has also compressed to 1.56% from 1.64% in 1Q as asset yields fell to 5.96%, while gross interest income of $196.8mn masks weaker earnings power because 2Q26 DE is expected at $0.25, below the $0.36 dividend. Although resi credit can support longer-term returns, lower ROE than agency-skewed peers and a path to dividend coverage only in the first quarter of 2027 reinforce a cautious fundamental outlook.

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