Molina Healthcare

MOH · NYSE

$219.72+$9.52 (+4.53%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:43 PM ET

Prev close $210.20

MOH analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 13 analysts over the last 12 months. 8% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold11
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 20 analysts

Average $215.60 (−1.9% downside)

Low: $148.47
Now: $219.72
High: $279.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MOH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$235.00 → $220.00	59%
Truist Securities	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$250.00 → $225.00	67%
RBC Capital	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$248.00 → $218.00	57%
Barclays	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$184.00 → $180.00	59%
TD Cowen	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$163.00 → $230.00	67%
Truist Securities	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$205.00 → $250.00	67%
Wells Fargo	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$159.00 → $235.00	59%
RBC Capital	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$216.00 → $248.00	57%
Barclays	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$199.00 → $184.00	59%
RBC Capital	Jun 23, 2026	Initiates	Sector Perform	$216.00	57%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Molina Healthcare is supported by a durable, government-sponsored model with more than 5 million members across 21 states, and over 85% of membership tied to state Medicaid contracts that create recurring, scale-driven demand. The bullish case is anchored in improving profitability from a 4% rate/5% trend gap in Medicaid, where each 100 bps of MCR improvement is worth about $5.00/share, plus meaningful upside from a conservative 33% new RFP win assumption versus an 80% historical win rate. Additional catalysts include the ~$6B Florida CMS contract, duals expansion from 6% toward its 16% Medicaid footprint, and management’s excluded 100–150 bps AI margin upside, which together support a credible multi-year earnings recovery.

Bear case

Molina Healthcare is negatively viewed because its earnings trajectory depends heavily on Medicaid rate recovery that may not keep pace with 4%-5% trend, especially after the OBBBA tightened federal funding and raised the risk that management’s needed 90 bps of MCR improvement proves too optimistic. The company’s Marketplace business is also a drag, with 2026 membership expected to fall about 62% from roughly 650K to 250K and a full-year loss of $0.75/share as high-acuity members and weak risk adjustment pressure margins. Even with embedded earnings above $9/share and 2027 EPS building blocks above $10, execution risk around Florida, MAPD exit timing, and major state renewals like Washington leaves the outlook fragile.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.