Mosaic

MOS · NYSE

$17.86−$0.06 (−0.33%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:45 PM ET

Prev close $17.92

MOS analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 25% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold10
Underperform1
Sell1

12-month price target · 20 analysts

Average $27.82 (+55.7% upside)

Low: $17.17
Now: $17.86
High: $37.49

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MOS analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Barclays	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$26.00 → $22.00	48%
Mizuho	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$25.00 → $22.00	44%
RBC Capital	Oct 5, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Sector Perform	$27.00 → $25.00	36%
Keybanc	Sep 11, 2026	Initiates	Sector Weight	—	30%
Freedom Broker	Aug 13, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Sell	$32.00 → $17.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	Jun 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$28.00 → $26.00	59%
Rothschild & Co	Jun 26, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$30.00	0%
Freedom Broker	Jun 17, 2026	Upgrade	Sell → Buy	$24.00 → $32.00	62%
BMO Capital	May 21, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$35.00 → $31.00	45%
Barclays	May 18, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$31.00 → $26.00	48%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Mosaic is supported by its position as a top global producer of potash and phosphate, with ~$12 billion of revenues in 2025 and a diversified Brazil Fertilizantes business that expands its market reach. Its fundamental outlook improves as phosphate operations recover toward a 7-8Mt annual run-rate after recent turnarounds, while the Esterhazy hydrofloat project adds 400Kt of low-cost capacity and more granular product output. The analyst also sees rising cash flow as operational efficiency and lower costs from past transformation initiatives combine with improving phosphate margins, with expected FCF of $0.3B/$0.7B in 2026/2027 and additional upside from potential Ma'aden monetization.

Bear case

Mosaic is facing a prolonged phosphate turnaround that could stretch into mid-2027, as high idled and fixed costs, gradual restart risks, and uncertainty around sulphur normalization limit the near-term benefit from its ~$700/tonne contract versus ~$1,000/tonne market pricing. Delayed capex also pushes cash generation out, with 2026 capex cut to $1.2B from $1.5B and only minimal cash flow expected in 2026/2027, while consensus appears too optimistic on a phosphate restart. The view is further weakened by lower 2027 and 2028 EBITDA estimates of $1.9B and $2.3B, respectively, as volatile nutrient, sulphur, gas, currency, and weather risks could pressure profitability.

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