Marathon Petroleum

MPC · NYSE

$475.04+$1.35 (+0.28%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:55 PM ET

Prev close $473.69

MPC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 63% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy10
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 21 analysts

Average $362.88 (−23.6% downside)

Low: $188.80
Now: $475.04
High: $485.10

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MPC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$400.00 → $560.00	78%
Citigroup	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$318.00 → $518.00	35%
Barclays	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$321.00 → $488.00	71%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$330.00 → $420.00	61%
Mizuho	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$304.00 → $457.00	60%
B of A Securities	Oct 2, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$410.00 → $426.00	58%
Jefferies	Sep 22, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	$413.00	58%
Goldman Sachs	Sep 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$376.00 → $472.00	62%
Raymond James	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$350.00 → $445.00	72%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$265.00 → $453.00	73%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Marathon Petroleum is attractive because it is generating exceptional cash flow, with more than $10 billion of CFO leaving the parent balance sheet at only about 2% net debt to capital and parent cash near $6.7 billion, well above its roughly $1 billion target. Its refining system is capturing above 100% of benchmark margins through advantaged crude sourcing, yield improvement projects, and strong distillate and jet economics, while renewable diesel capacity and midstream growth add diversification and earnings support. Combined with MPLX distributions that already cover parent capex and dividends, the company has a best-in-class capacity to sustain aggressive buybacks and deliver leading total return of capital through 2027.

Bear case

Marathon Petroleum is exposed to a highly cyclical refining market where earnings swing with volatile crack spreads, product demand, and crude differentials, making its outlook fragile despite recent strength. The company’s valuation near 5.5x 2027 EV/EBITDA, below its 3-year average closer to 6x, reflects skepticism that margin improvement will persist as risks from a sooner-than-expected reopening of the SoH, narrowing Canadian heavy crude discounts, and slowing US NGL supply growth pressure results. Although 1Q26 saw the lowest unplanned downtime this decade and FY turnaround spend is reiterated at $1.35B, planned renewable diesel downtime, a $63MM MPLX derivative headwind, and weak retail downside risk limit near-term upside.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.