MPLX LP

MPLX · NYSE

$58.39+$0.21 (+0.36%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:50 PM ET

Prev close $58.18

MPLX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 14 analysts over the last 12 months. 57% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $63.57 (+8.9% upside)

Low: $54.54
Now: $58.39
High: $76.65

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MPLX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 20, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$62.00	—
Morgan Stanley	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$66.00 → $64.00	61%
RBC Capital	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$60.00 → $64.00	65%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$60.00 → $66.00	61%
Barclays	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$59.00 → $63.00	71%
Wells Fargo	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$61.00 → $63.00	44%
Wolfe Research	Jul 29, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Peer Perform	—	47%
RBC Capital	Jul 2, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$60.00	65%
Morgan Stanley	May 20, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$62.00 → $60.00	61%
Barclays	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$58.00 → $59.00	71%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

MPLX is supported by a disciplined capital-allocation framework that is directing more than 90% of organic growth capital into natural gas and NGL infrastructure while targeting mid-teens returns, alongside a higher 2026 growth capex plan of $2.9 billion to accelerate the Gulf Coast fractionation project. Its 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $1,775 million slightly beat consensus, and a sequence of projects including Secretariat I, Harmon Creek III, Blackcomb, Titan, and BANGL should drive a back-half 2026 ramp and meaningful 2027 EBITDA growth without reliance on inorganic M&A. MPLX is further reinforced by exposure to the Marcellus and Permian, an attractive yield of nearly 7%, and expected 12.5% distribution increases in both 2026 and 2027, supporting durable cash generation and shareholder returns.

Bear case

MPLX is pressured by deteriorating processing margins and NGL prices, plus volumetric downside across its processing and fractionation systems, which can weaken cash flow from its Appalachian and Permian asset base. Project execution risk is also meaningful, as higher costs or delays in growth projects could reduce expected returns, while 2026 growth capex of $2.4 billion and quarterly repurchases of $50 million suggest limited near-term flexibility. On top of that, declining reservoir output, sustained weakness in natural gas and NGL prices, environmental and regulatory liabilities, and rising interest rates could force a wider discount to peers versus the 2027E EV/EBITDA framework.

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