Merck

MRK · NYSE

$148.30+$4.67 (+3.25%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $143.63

MRK analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 21 analysts over the last 12 months. 71% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy15
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 31 analysts

Average $154.99 (+4.5% upside)

Low: $106.05
Now: $148.30
High: $195.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MRK analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$125.00 → $145.00	60%
RBC Capital	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$150.00 → $145.00	73%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$120.00 → $145.00	64%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$179.00 → $177.00	63%
JP Morgan	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$150.00 → $165.00	65%
Scotiabank	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Sector Outperform	$155.00 → $180.00	48%
HSBC	Sep 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$150.00 → $172.00	59%
Leerink Partners	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$127.00 → $161.00	38%
Guggenheim	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$146.00 → $170.00	66%
Wells Fargo	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$150.00 → $170.00	68%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Merck & Co is supported by a diversified franchise that combines leadership in oncology, vaccines, cardiometabolic disease, infections, and animal health, with 53% of 2025 sales coming from US human health. Its outlook is strengthened by improving pipeline visibility around sacituzumab tirumotecan, INT/V940, TL1A, and HIV assets, alongside durable commercial momentum in Winrevair, Capvaxive, and Gardasil, which should help offset decelerating Keytruda growth and looming loss-of-exclusivity pressure. Although earnings growth may be muted as OpEx rises to fund launches and a deeper late-stage pipeline, strong cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and the potential for margin support after the 2.5% BMS royalty ends in 2026 underpin confidence in the company’s long-term growth runway.

Bear case

Merck & Co is facing a negative outlook because its core growth engine, Keytruda, is nearing peak penetration in major tumor types while international pricing pressure and higher German rebates create a tougher path for 2027 growth. The company’s own commentary points to only “modest” 2027 growth despite elevated OpEx rising in the mid-to-high single digits, which supports the view that EPS growth could be close to flat and below consensus at $8.83 versus $9.37. In addition, heavy dependence on pipeline catalysts and new launches leaves Merck exposed to trial setbacks, patent erosion, and commercialization misses, making its premium valuation vulnerable to multiple compression if execution weakens.

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