Merlin

MRLN · NASDAQ

$1.05−$0.02 (−1.87%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:32 PM ET

Prev close $1.07

MRLN analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $8.75 (+733.8% upside)

Low: $7.07
Now: $1.05
High: $10.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MRLN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$8.00 → $4.00	63%
Canaccord Genuity	Sep 25, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$7.50	31%
Maxim Group	Sep 18, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$7.00	34%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$11.00 → $9.00	59%
Northland Capital Markets	Jul 21, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$10.00	35%
TD Cowen	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$11.00 → $8.00	63%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Jul 9, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$11.00	59%
TD Cowen	Jun 3, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$11.00	63%
Roth Capital	Apr 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00 → $25.00	47%
Roth Capital	Apr 14, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$15.00	47%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Merlin is attractive fundamentally because it appears to be a first mover in certifiable takeoff-to-touchdown autonomy, with its aircraft-agnostic Merlin Pilot already validated across four aircraft types and supported by >800 systems-on flight hours and 500+ missions. Its defense-backed commercialization path is de-risked by the $105M USSOCOM IDIQ, recent completion of CDR and SOI 3 progress, and a growing footprint on C-130J and KC-135 programs, while partnerships with GE Aerospace and the USAF expand distribution and technical credibility. Financially, it ended 2Q26 with about $184M in cash and no debt, has ~$1M quarterly revenue but rising contract-driven spending, and its model could scale toward high-margin recurring software and support revenue as certification advances.

Bear case

Merlin is a highly speculative autonomy software story whose upside depends on slow, uncertain commercialization rather than current earnings power, with EBITDA and free cash flow likely negative for years and FY26 revenue cut to $8.4M while Opex rises to $130M/$135M. Its dependence on U.S. military contracts, including a $105M program with only 2 task orders received and no funding yet for stages 3-7, creates meaningful concentration, cancellation, and government-priority risk that could leave revenue lumpy and delayed. Certification delays, safety issues, competitive pressure from larger aerospace firms, and potential dilution from about 25MM warrant shares and additional capital needs further weaken the fundamental case and increase execution risk.

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