Matador Resources

MTDR · NYSE

$57.44−$0.32 (−0.55%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 21, 4:01 AM ET

Prev close $57.76

MTDR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 56% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 23 analysts

Average $71.51 (+24.5% upside)

Low: $59.59
Now: $57.44
High: $96.60

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MTDR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Mizuho	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$77.00 → $71.00	60%
Scotiabank	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Sector Perform	$59.00	59%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$66.00 → $69.00	66%
Truist Securities	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$59.00 → $65.00	63%
Wells Fargo	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$77.00 → $76.00	40%
Keybanc	Sep 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$68.00 → $73.00	49%
UBS	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$56.00 → $64.00	65%
Seaport Global	Sep 3, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	—	67%
Wells Fargo	Sep 2, 2026	Upgrade	Equal-Weight → Overweight	$79.00 → $77.00	40%
Wells Fargo	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$63.00 → $79.00	78%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Matador Resources is supported by a high-quality Delaware Basin position of about 212.5k net acres, a record ~207.1k BOE/d in FY2025, and a high-margin ~58% oil cut that underscore strong operating scale and liquids exposure. Its “brick-by-brick” acquisition strategy, low-cost inventory runway estimated at ~10-15 years, and productivity gains in ‘26 vintage wells, which improved to 5.96 bbl per foot versus 4.94 bbl per foot in ‘25, suggest durable growth potential even with relatively flat capex. The integrated San Mateo midstream business adds capital efficiency and cash flow visibility, while the outlook for ~1.7x net debt/EBITDA exiting ‘26 and ~1.3x by YE27 supports deleveraging and continued shareholder returns.

Bear case

Matador Resources is supported by a NAV-based valuation, but its fundamentals remain highly exposed to a weaker commodity backdrop, with the valuation assuming a 5-year strip and long-term mid-cycle prices of $60/bbl WTI and $3.50/MMbtu HH. The stock already trades at 2.7x '26e EV/EBITDA versus 2.9x for SMID-cap peers, leaving limited relative discount while still facing pressure if oil and gas prices decline, US legislation tightens, or OPEC decisions become stricter. Rising interest rates could further weigh on production and cash flow, and because the company generates most revenue from exploration and production, those cyclical risks dominate the outlook.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.