Vail Resorts

MTN · NYSE

$151.41+$0.44 (+0.29%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $150.97

MTN analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 14 analysts over the last 12 months. 36% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold7
Underperform1
Sell1

12-month price target · 16 analysts

Average $144.80 (−4.4% downside)

Low: $118.17
Now: $151.41
High: $200.55

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MTN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Ladenburg Thalmann	Oct 13, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$192.00	49%
Stifel	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$157.00 → $172.00	23%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$147.00 → $142.00	58%
JP Morgan	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$126.00 → $150.00	57%
Truist Securities	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$195.00 → $191.00	53%
Mizuho	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$160.00 → $156.00	38%
Deutsche Bank	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$138.00 → $132.00	47%
Wells Fargo	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$125.00 → $130.00	63%
Barclays	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$119.00 → $117.00	46%
Stifel	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$161.00 → $157.00	23%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Vail Resorts is attractive because its stock trades in the bottom third of its historical 6-21x one-year forward EV/EBITDA range, creating a favorable risk/reward backdrop while the company still has room to raise Epic pass pricing above inflation. The business benefits from strong supply-demand fundamentals, a high-income and loyal customer base, and essentially zero new ski resort supply, which supports long-term pricing power and resilience despite post-COVID normalization and climate-related volatility. Even with a tougher Australia season weighing on F4QE Resort Adj. EBITDA to ($130.6M), solid Epic Australia pass sales grew 26%/31% year over year and North American summer demand remained solid, helping cushion the near-term pressure.

Bear case

Vail Resorts is facing a cautious fundamental backdrop because pass sales through September 18th, 2026/2027 have decelerated to down about 12% year over year in units and 8% in sales dollars, while Days sold also softened to -6%, signaling weaker demand momentum after poor snow conditions. Although FY4Q26 revenue rose 2.5% to $278M and EBITDA of -$122M was slightly better than expected, the more important issue is that initial FY2027 guidance and revised estimates point lower, with FY2027 EBITDA cut to $819M from $854M and calendar 2026 capex reduced only modestly. The stock’s outlook is also pressured by a high fixed-cost resort model, weather and climate sensitivity, and risks that Epic Pass maturity, macro weakness, and European M&A could weigh on growth and returns.

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