National Bank Holdings

NBHC · NYSE

$38.03+$0.53 (+1.41%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $37.50

NBHC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 6 analysts

Average $48.45 (+27.4% upside)

Low: $44.44
Now: $38.03
High: $51.45

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NBHC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Piper Sandler	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$49.00 → $45.00	68%
DA Davidson	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $43.00	50%
Piper Sandler	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$51.00 → $49.00	68%
Piper Sandler	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$52.00 → $51.00	68%
Stephens & Co.	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$49.00 → $46.00	67%
Piper Sandler	Apr 27, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$48.00 → $52.00	68%
DA Davidson	Apr 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$46.00	50%
DA Davidson	Apr 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$46.00	50%
Piper Sandler	Mar 25, 2026	Initiates	Neutral → Overweight	$48.00	68%
DA Davidson	Feb 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$48.00	50%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

National Bank Holdings is supported by an opportunistic capital-return strategy, with the buyback authorization raised to $100M and prior repurchases of $10M per quarter expected to continue providing support. While announced loan losses and investment impairment are expected to reduce 3Q26 earnings by $0.72-0.76 per share, management still reiterated confidence in reaching $1 EPS in 4Q26, suggesting underlying earnings power remains intact. Although franchise restaurant and healthcare loans are a potential pressure point, each is estimated at less than 5% of the total loan portfolio, and the broader credit environment is viewed as stable.

Bear case

National Bank Holdings is facing a material credit-quality setback as one healthcare relationship tied to Premier Medical appears to drive a significant portion of the $47M in net charge-offs, while $65.0M of commercial loan impairments across franchise and healthcare are expected to produce $46.8M of NCOs and a $38M-$40M allowance build in 3Q. The situation is compounded by a possible fraud-related franchise exposure involving a $20M loan in April 2025, where alleged concealment of liquidity stress and unpaid obligations could limit collateral recovery and prolong losses. Together with a $4.0M FinTech investment impairment that reduces fee income, these issues cut near-term earnings sharply and create an ongoing credit overhang that weakens confidence in reported profitability.

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