Neurocrine Biosciences

NBIX · NASDAQ

$142.00+$5.02 (+3.66%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:54 PM ET

Prev close $136.98

NBIX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 24 analysts over the last 12 months. 88% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy21
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 32 analysts

Average $211.59 (+49.0% upside)

Low: $166.65
Now: $142.00
High: $265.65

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NBIX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Needham	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$204.00	47%
BMO Capital	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$164.00 → $150.00	54%
Guggenheim	Oct 6, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$207.00	17%
UBS	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$231.00 → $214.00	56%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$182.00 → $183.00	49%
RBC Capital	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$198.00	44%
Citigroup	Sep 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$249.00 → $253.00	42%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$196.00 → $182.00	49%
Canaccord Genuity	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$200.00 → $210.00	42%
Truist Securities	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$200.00 → $213.00	36%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Neurocrine Biosciences is attractive because it has evolved from a single-product story into a diversified platform with three commercial franchises, led by INGREZZA and CRENESSITY, while VYKAT XR adds a third high-margin pillar with IP into the mid-2040s. Its 2Q26 results showed strong operating momentum, with revenue of $959 million, up 39% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.85, up 73%, alongside an INGREZZA FY26 guidance raise to $2.825 billion-$2.875 billion. Beyond current sales, a deep late-stage CNS pipeline and a proven commercial engine funded by product cash flow provide multiple 2027 catalysts and support a favorable risk-reward profile.

Bear case

Neurocrine Biosciences is exposed to meaningful execution and commercialization risk because its core franchises face slower growth, pricing pressure, and competitive threats from Austedo, Cobenfy, emraclidine, and ML-007, while Crenessity and Vykat XR are still vulnerable to uptake and access challenges. The pipeline is not a clean offset: direclidine already fell short of investor expectations, and osavampator, despite a promising Phase 2 in n=183, still faces binary Phase 3 risk in psychiatry, where placebo response and dropout can derail outcomes. Although the company cites at least 800,000 U.S. prevalent TD patients and only about 10% treated with approved VMAT2 inhibitors, that underpenetration does not eliminate concerns that real-world safety, physician switching, and IRA-related pricing dynamics could cap long-term upside.

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